Archives for November 2022

My two most recent wires (Recessions usually crush shares – but investors can always reduce their ravages, 31 October and How low could stocks go in 2023? 14 November) established six key conclusions: Investors can’t accurately predict the timing, still less the duration or severity, of recessions. Nor, it’s hardly worth adding, can central bankers and economists. … [Read more...] about How we’ve prepared for the next bust

Shane Oliver believes that during the year to come Australia will likely avoid a recession (see, for example, Seven reasons why Australia should avoid a recession, 9 November). But it’s quite possible that it won’t: on 28 October in Shane Oliver’s guide to riding out a “year to forget” he reckoned that “the chance of recession in Australia is 40%.” Owners of Australian … [Read more...] about How Low Could Stocks Go in 2023?

According to Ashley Owen (“Recessions Are Usually Good for Sharemarkets,” Firstlinks, 12 October), “history shows that economic contractions have been mostly good for share prices.” Specifically, “the Australian share market has actually increased during the majority of economic recessions in Australia. The same is true for the U.S. share market during U.S. recessions.” In … [Read more...] about Recessions usually crush shares – but investors can always reduce their ravages